TIME.com has conducted a teleconference interview with Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO)'s Director-General, who has nearly 30 years of experience in the battle of Ebola, polio, and other diseases outbreak previously. He is one of the world's top officials responsible for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr. Bruce has gained firsthand knowledge when he traveled to China to study the country's response to COVID-19 and how effective it was. And he is communicating with the WHO response teams now in hope of fighting COVID-19 around the world.
Below is a summary of what he thinks on the pandemic:-
1. Do you expect the virus to continue to spread?
Dr. Bruce explained that it took China 3 months full to come out of this. In other parts of the globe, Europe, North America, the Middle East, the virus is still growing vigorously, while in places like Africa and parts of India subcontinent, it is just the beginning. Seeing from this situation, they still have months to get through this as they are now at an exponential growth period.
2. What do you think the pandemic will become after 6 months?
According to Dr. Bruce, we will emerge from the current situation, however, as the flu season hits, there's a possibility that this will surge again during that time.
3. What do you anticipate in the further future? Will the virus ever disappear?
The doctor mentioned that the chances for the disease to completely disappear are very low, as it is spreading too easily among people, so it is more likely to be waves or low-level disease. But a lot of those are gonna be depending on what we do now. We have to be quick and sharp, like testing every single case and rapid isolation, we should be able to control it. Not just having measures like big shutdowns, as it may come back after the shutdown ends. Later in the interview, he added that big shut down may buy us time, but it won't solve the problem. Therefore, we must use the time we have optimally.
4. Should we be concerned about the second wave of infections in China?
He said that China is absolutely concerned about the second wave and they have been preparing for it by building for beds, buying ventilators, etc. This is an outcome he found after speaking to the Chinese governors and mayors. They said that “We do not expect this virus to disappear, but we do expect to be able to run our society, run our economy, run our health system. We cannot end up in this situation again.”
5. Why does the fatality rate in Italy seems to be higher?
The doctor explained that there are several factors. One of them is because Italy is the second-oldest country in the world, after Japan, with the higher older population, which is why it is more severe in Italy and has a higher fatality rate.
6. Which countries are the most vulnerable in this situation?
Dr. Bruce first says that everyone is vulnerable in this situation, but things may get worse when it actually becomes an outbreak in those countries that don't have as much medical capacity, like Africa.
7. The number of people infected in Iran is higher than the official numbers being reported, is there reason to be concerned?
Dr. Bruce is concerned, and the same goes for the country as well. He added that, from his call with the deputy minister, the country is struggling just to get meaningful data from all the facilities and provinces.
8. From the report, there are also death cases among people who are in good health. What have your teams seen in terms of who the virus is killing?
He says that one of the things that terrify him is that the millennials are thinking that they are invulnerable against the virus when they shouldn't be. He added that 10% of the people who are in ICU in Italy are in their 20s, 30s or 40s, and they are in good health. The team has no clue about it and they don't have clear predictors.
9. What do you have to say to young people around the world?
Millennials have to take this seriously, as it is highly transmittable to your family members, especially the elders, and to the society. Having the virus doesn't mean it is just you having it, but you are putting others in danger as well. And DO NOT underestimate a new disease, especially when there’s still a lot of uncertainty. But what we can sure about is that is will kill the young ones as well, and it will make a whole lot more sick.
10. What should be the first priority for a country after locking down?
He pointed out that the first priority should be running tests on the suspects, and then, effectively isolate those confirmed with COVID-19. And lastly is effective quarantine.
11. How do you think this will end?
Dr. Bruce believes that it will end with humanity victorious over the virus. At the end of the day, the general population is going to be the one that slows this thing down enough to be in control, in order for the professionals to come out with a cure and/or vaccine. Therefore, it will need great cooperation and patience from them.
You may read here for the full interview : https://time.com/5805368/will-coronavirus-go-away-world-health-organization/
